The Apartment Market Has a Location Problem
People still need homes.
That has not changed.
Builders delivered roughly 1.42 million apartments between 2023 and 2025. That is the biggest three-year wave since the mid-1980s (Continental Properties). Completions peaked in 2024 at 584,000 units, 92% above the five-year pre-pandemic average.
The bigger issue is where new apartments were built.
Over the last few years, many builders focused on fast-growing cities. More people were moving there. More jobs were being created. Demand looked strong.
So builders added more apartments.
Now many of those new buildings are opening at the same time.
This is creating different results across the country.
Some areas have too many new apartments competing for the same renters.
Other areas still need more homes.
The difference comes down to one thing:
Where the building is.
Why This Is Happening
Apartment buildings take years to finish.
A project that starts today may not open for several years. During that time, the market can change.
This creates a timing problem.
A city may look like it needs more apartments when a project begins. But by the time the building opens, many other projects may also be finished.
Now owners are competing for the same renters.
Some may offer lower prices.
Some may offer free months.
Some may spend more money to attract people.
The problem is not that people stopped needing apartments.
The problem is that too many new homes arrived in certain places at the same time.
The Department of War Is on a Gold Mine's Filings
On May 21, 2026, the board of a federal bank voted unanimously to lend nearly $3 billion to build a gold mine on American soil. Congress got 25 days notice. Nobody objected.
Final papers are expected in the second half of this year. The day that ink dries, three things happen at once: funding risk goes to zero, the U.S. government becomes financially fused to the project, and Wall Street re-rates the stock from speculative developer to federally backed strategic asset.
One more detail. The company's own filings cite "substantial support and partnership from the Department of War," a phrase we've never seen on a gold project. The reason: alongside its gold, the deposit holds a metal China formally banned from export to the United States. The only domestic reserve in the country.
The company is about one fiftieth the size of Newmont.
What Many People Miss
The apartment market is not one big market.
Every city is different.
A city with growing jobs and fewer new buildings may stay strong.
A city with many new buildings and slower growth may face more pressure.
This is why looking only at national numbers can be misleading.
The important questions are local.
Are people moving there?
Are companies hiring there?
Can workers afford the rent?
Do people want to stay?
A good building in the wrong place can still struggle.
A simple building in the right place can still do well.
What This Means for Owners
The next apartment cycle will likely reward better choices.
The goal is not just to build more.
The goal is to build where people actually want to live.
Strong areas usually have good jobs, good roads, and reasons for people to stay.
Weak areas may have too many empty units and too much competition.
This is why location has become more important again.
The best buildings are not always the newest ones.
They are the ones that fit the needs of the people around them.
By the Numbers
4.3%: national multifamily vacancy in Q2 2026, down 50 bps quarter-over-quarter (CBRE)
167,500: units of net absorption in Q2 2026, nearly double Q1 (CBRE)
11.1%: average national concession discount in June, deepest in more than 25 years (RealPage)
37%: share of stabilized Austin units offering concessions in June, highest in the country. Denver and Nashville followed at 14.6% average discount each (RealPage)
Dallas and Phoenix entered the top 10 for concession usage in June, replacing Atlanta and Charlotte (RealPage)
579,000: units under construction nationally in Q1 2026, down 50%+ from the 2023 peak (CoStar)
Bottom Line
The apartment market is not broken.
It is changing.
The winners will likely be owners who understand where people want to live, not just where buildings can be built.
